June 2009 - climate stats and forecast accuracy

Thanks to strong upper-level high pressure the latter half of the month, June 2009 averaged dry and hot in Memphis. In fact, after June 14, only a trace of rainfall was officially recorded, which is why precipitation ended up approximately one-half of what is normally received for the month. Also, beginning June 15, a string of 20 consecutive days of 90+ degree highs were observed. Following are climate summaries for Memphis and Bartlett, TN.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
At the airport, the average temperature was 81.3 degrees, which was 2.6 degrees above normal and nearly 10 degrees above May's average. The highest temperature for the month was 100 degrees on the 23rd, only the second 100-degree reading in June in 14 years, and the lowest was 58 on the 6th. A total of 19 June days saw highs at or above 90 degrees. Record maximum low temperatures were set three times during the month (24th, 27th, and 28th) as lows failed to drop below 80 degrees on four occasions.

Precipitation totaled 2.13", which was over 2.17" below the normal of 4.30" and about 5 inches below May's total. There were only 6 days with measurable rainfall recorded (plus 3 days with a trace of precipitation) and zero days with more than an inch of rain. The peak wind gust was recorded during the derecho on the 12th (53 mph), though some locations in the metro area recorded wind gusts of up to 80 mph that afternoon (if you have yet to read it, see my event analysis of the summer storm). Click here for the NWS climate recap for June.

Bartlett, TN
WXLIVE! began its fifth year of operation on June 23 and is building a decent database of weather events. The average temperature for June was 80.2 degrees, with a max of 98.5 on the 23rd (one of 19 days above 90) and a min of 53.9 degrees on the 6th. Precipitation actually totaled much higher than the airport thanks to a storm system on the 15th that effectively missed the airport. WXLIVE! recorded 4.49" for the first half of the month, but none after the 15th. The peak wind gust was 46 mph on the 12th. Click here for the MWN recap.

June Accuracy
The MWN Forecast accuracy statistics are in and, for the month of June, the MWN forecast once again beat out all of the computer models and the NWS forecast in the temperature category, but narrowly came in second in the dewpoint category, 0.04 degrees behind the North American Model (NAM) average. MWN average temperature error for June was less than 2 degrees -1.92 to be exact - which was the most accurate month by MWN in 11 months. All sources performed less accurately than June of 2008, mainly due to high variability in the second week of the month.

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Feast-or-famine rainfall on the holiday weekend

The Mid-South (or, a lot of it perhaps) finally got some much needed rainfall over the weekend. After a strong of 20 days with no recorded rain and high temps in the 90s every day, a cold front settled through the area Sunday. Many areas saw a pretty good amount of rain, while others (like my own) barely got enough to keep from having to water again in a few days. The attached precip totals image from the Memphis Doppler radar tells the story. It shows estimated precipitation totals from the morning of July 4 through this morning. The color scale in the lower-right shows the amount of precip in inches.

The image clearly illustrates the feast-or-famine nature of this weekend's rain. Southern middle TN, part of northwest TN, much of north MS and central AR got their fair share, while most of northeast AR missed out. I'd like to highlight Shelby Co. particularly - right in the center of the map. The extreme north part of the county (Millington to Arlington) saw 1-2", the southern part (Whitehaven to Hickory Hill to Collierville) also saw 1-2"+, while the center part of the county, especially north of I-40 (Frayser to Bartlett to Cordova), got less than a 1/4". WXLIVE! recorded a total of 0.09", while flash flooding occurred just a few miles north in Millington! See the pictures below taken from WXLIVE!'s location looking north at the Millington storms Sunday afternoon. (click each for a larger view)

The heavy rain, unfortunately, took a toll as one little boy lost his life after being swept out of a retention pond and into a sewer system in Millington. Folks, weather can be dangerous! Please be cautious of things like lightning, flooding, heat, and high wind. It's not just tornadoes that will kill you!

As a follow-up to the Fourth of July, I'd also like to share with you an interesting post from the blog CloudyandCool.com on Fireworks and Air Pollution. I think you might find in interesting.

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Happy Fourth of July!

Special Weather Statement from MWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NWS-MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
730 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...POTENTIAL INDEPENDENCE DAY SEVERE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR A BRIEF WIND GUST... WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METRO AFTER 9 PM AND INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 11 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTH BUT DAMAGAING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH... STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA.

PEOPLE WITH PLANS TO ATTEND OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE EVENING. IN ADDITION... CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 95-97 DEGREE RANGE AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 100. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS AS YOU PLAN YOU OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

STAY WITH MEMPHISWEATHER.NET / PDA.MEMPHISWEATHER.NET ON YOUR MOBILE PHONE / FOR THE LATEST ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

$$

NWS/MWN

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Independence Day forecast

For those planning to go to fireworks shows and other outoor events tonight or Saturday, weather is looking pretty decent, considering it is early July. It will be very warm (hot to some) and humidity will definitely be higher Saturday than tonight, but I think most rain will hold off until after Saturday evening's events. Rain chances will increase overnight Saturday night and scattered thunderstorms will be around on Sunday as a cold front lingers over the region before moving out early next week. Right now, I would not cancel any outdoor plans, but it might be a good idea to have a "Plan B" for Sunday, just in case Mother Nature decides that Mid-Southerners are parched enough and she relieves some of the dryness with some much-needed rain. For most areas, we're now into our third week of rain-free conditions and the heat of the past few weeks is taking its toll on vegetation - and we don't need golden brown lawns this early in the summer! A complete look at the forecast for Memphis and the Mid-South can be found at MemphisWeather.net.

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Follow-up to the June 12 Mid-South derecho

Clean-up is ongoing in the Memphis area after "Hurricane Elvis: The Sequel," as some call it, came roaring through late in the afternoon of June 12. It's been 3 weeks since the derecho struck - complete power restoration by MLG&W took a few hours over 1 week to retore the approximately 140,000 customers that lost power during the storm and in a subsequent storm roughly 36 hours later.

My area of town (Bartlett) still has at least a few more weeks of debris removal (mainly trees) to go with the hardest hit area stretching east near Elmore Road from west of Bartlett Boulevard to Kirby-Whitten Road. In fact, city officials have estimated that more debris was created from this storm than the original "Hurricane Elvis" of July 22, 2003, which tended to focus its damage over the heart of Memphis rather than in its northern suburbs. Below you will find the process Bartlett is using to rid themselves of the debris - huge piles of dead trees limbs, branches, and trunks are being ground up into mulch. Be looking for a mulch giveaway at some point!

If you haven't read my event analysis of the storm, it's worth checking out (in my humble opinion) and is written for the layman to understand. There are also links to my damage photos, radar and satellite imagery, etc. at that link as well.

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