Monday severe weather threatsSpecifically for tomorrow, low pressure will move by to our north during the afternoon and evening tomorrow, dragging a cold front through during the early evening hours. This low has ignited the first "chaser convergence" scenario of the spring out in Oklahoma and north Texas where the threat of severe storms is much higher this afternoon.
|The surface map from 7pm Sunday to 7pm Monday in 6-hour steps shows low pressure moving out of the Plains across southern MO and into the Lower Ohio Valley, dragging a front into the Mid-South. (NOAA)|
With cold air aloft associated with the low and warm air below, scattered thunderstorms will develop sometime around mid-day and continue through the afternoon hours. One final push along the front, with perhaps a little more organized line of storms, will occur early in the evening, ending the threat for the day.
With afternoon surface wind out of the southwest, low-level shear will be minimized a bit and the tornado threat will be non-zero, but low. We also expect these storms to produce dangerous lightning and the possibility of localized ponding of water or flash flooding due to the recent rains that have the ground already pretty well soaked. The graphic below summarizes the threats and timing.
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After MondayLooking ahead, we'll have a respite for about 48 hours with decent spring weather Tuesday and most of Wednesday before the next system to our west makes a run at the Mid-South on Thursday, bringing yet another round of storms with the potential for some severe weather. Beyond that, Friday and Saturday look good with more storms on Sunday. It's like watching Groundhog Day...
Despite March arriving like a lion, it appears March may also go out like a lion! No rest for the weather-weary. Stay safe!
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|MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador||Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder|