Despite a few sprinkles, Black Friday has also turned out pretty decent too, warm and cloudy but mainly dry so far. Temperatures have been in the mid 60s most of the day. If we don't drop below this morning's low of 63°, we'll tie the daily record for warmest low temperature. We can be thankful we're not dealing with the ice storm that some in the Plains are experiencing! That speaks to the strength of the cold front to our west, if not to its (lack of) forward motion.Today's Turkey Day high of 75° was the warmest Thanksgiving in Memphis in the past 20 years. Second warmest: 74° in 2010. #memwx— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) November 27, 2015
Heading into the rest of the weekend, a persistent upper level pattern has caused the surface front to nearly stall out as it attempts to move east through the Mid-South. This upper pattern features a fairly strong ridge of high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf of Mexico and a deep upper level low over the western states. In between, a broad southwesterly flow extends from the Desert Southwest to the Great Lakes, or parallel to the surface front. When this occurs, there is very little to "push" the front through and our surface pattern also stagnates.
|NWS rainfall forecast from 6pm Friday through 6pm Monday. Though the rain has held off so far, a lot is on the way, particularly from Saturday PM through Monday AM. Graphic courtesy NWS.|
|Surface map valid 6pm Saturday evening showing the cold front just southeast of Memphis and widespread rainfall expected along and behind it as low pressure systems ride along the front from southwest to northeast. Graphic courtesy NWS.|
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