Monday, August 18, 2008

T.S. Fay rumbles through the Keys; takes aim on SW Florida

After bringing tropical storm wind and rain to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, portions of the Bahamas, and Cuba, Fay emerged into the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Florida Keys this morning and has just passed Key West. Though not quite a hurricane, it has taken on a much better appearance in the past two hours with better banding of thunderstorms around the center and rapidly cooling cloud tops as convection boils near the storm's center. We'll see what NHC says about it at 4pm, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it raised from 60 mph to 70, just shy of a hurricane.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for southwest FL north to just south of Tampa Bay. On it's current track, Fay will make landfall as a Cat 1 storm around Ft. Myers about noon on Tuesday EDT. The extended range tracks are all over the place after it makes it's way through central FL on Tuesday night. It's entirely possible that it could emerge into the Atlantic briefly before taking a hard left, going back across the FL peninsula and heading into the Gulf, regaining intensity! There is more than one model that indicate it will do just that. For now, the Hurricane Center is taking the high road and dissipating it later this week over the southern Appalachians... We'll see. Below is a radar image of Fay from the Keys just after it passed over Key West. (Wind went from gusting 51 mph to calm as it passed overhead Key West!)

2 comments:

jacksonweather said...

Erik- I was just taking a quick look at the 12z GFS & Euro...it looks like they have Fay doing dances. The Euro takes Fay to JAX around to TLH then to BHM and finally to CHA by next Monday. GFS takes 10 days but does something similar. This is gonna be fun to watch what Fay's end-game will be!

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

Incredible stuff, isn't it Erik??

Hope you, Eddie, and me get some rain from good ol' Fay! :)