Saturday, May 31, 2008
While the storm itself is of little consequence outside the small area it affects, it does signal the beginning of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season, which is predicted to be above average by both NOAA and tropical prediction expert Dr. William Gray of Colorado State. NOAA is calling for a 90% chance of a near or above normal season in terms of tropical activity with a 60-70% chance of 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes (the yearly average is 11, 6 and 2, respectively). Dr. Gray predicts a "well above-average" season for 2008, calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes, and an nearly 70% chance that a najor hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) will strike the U.S. coastline this season. The next 6 months will tell!
Thursday, May 29, 2008
As the clouds move out this morning, the late May sunshine will warm things up quickly with an upper-level ridge of high pressure rebuilding over the region. This will mean a return to hot weather, with a transition day today (mid 80s) and hot by tomorrow (low 90s). High temps look to remain near or above 90 through the end of the extended forecast, with the possible exception of Sunday - the only day we may see some rain or t'storms in the next 5-6 days. In fact, the middle of next week might see highs approaching 95 with morning lows only in the mid 70s in the city. Whoa!! It's too early in the year for this kind of heat!
On a separate note, Hurricane Seasons begins on Sunday and, right in time, extended range model guidance is indicating possible tropical development by mid-week in the Gulf of Mexico. See graphic below that is valid Wednesday night, June 4.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Saturday, May 10, 2008
During the evening hours, the metro area will be positioned in the warm sector - behind the northbound warm front and ahead of a strong cold front moving in from the Southern Plains. Within the warm sector, storms will continue to be scattered, but very capable of becoming severe. As the cold front moves closer, the likely scenario is that a squall line will form along or just ahead of the front and race across the region overnight. Within the line, the primary threat would be very high wind (75 mph+ possible) and large hail, but isolated tornadoes will continue to also be a threat. The timing of all of this appears to be that the warm front will move through around 5-6pm, so the severe weather threat increases around that time, and the squall line would move through between 11pm and 2am. Thus, severe weather is a distinct possibility from about 5pm until 2am.
Be sure that you take time to review your severe weather safety plan of action. That plan should include staying abreast of changing weather conditions with MemphisWeather.Net, as well as local or cable TV or radio, and preferably a NOAA All-Hazards Alert Radio. You can also sign up to receive email alerts of weather watches and warnings for the Memphis metro area by clicking on "Notification" from the Severe Weather menu on MemphisWeather.Net.
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
MUCH OF GEORGIA
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FAR EASTERN TEXAS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EMERGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND THIS UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
Friday, May 9, 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NEAR THE WARM FRONT...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN 8PM AND 2AM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
ALSO BE AWARE THAT THE MID-SOUTH IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD CAUSE ANY STORM THAT FORMS TO BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FROM 2-10PM TODAY.
MID-SOUTHERNERS SHOULD KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. MEMPHISWEATHER.NET WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED ON THE LATEST EVENTS AS THEY UNFOLD.