What a fantastic February day! Highs across the metro area hit 70 degrees this afternoon with much less wind than yesterday and filtered sunshine. I expected to see more low clouds today so I forecast a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday. Didn't happen! We definitely saw our share of high level clouds, but that didn't keep the temps down too much. As we head into the early part of the week, we'll remain near 70 or a touch higher for high temperatures through Wednesday. And you know what temps that high this time of year mean!
It looks like we might get our share, and the weather could become severe overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. Our first round will start Monday night and continue Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, though most should remain below severe level. However, an intense cold front of Pacific origin and strong low pressure system will likely bring a squall line into the region sometime after midnight Tuesday or Wednesday morning. The greatest threat at this time appears to be damaging straight line wind gusts, though the possibility of tornadoes exists as well. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Mid-South under a SLIGHT risk of severe weather Tuesday night and a broad portion of the eastern U.S. on Wednesday, an indicator of the large scale of this system and the uncertainty that still exists in the model data. These areas will likely be better defined in the next day or two. The severe weather areas are indicated in the maps below.
The MWN Forecast will be updated throughout the week to bring you the latest on the possible late winter severe weather.