The scenario is setting up over the next 36 hours for a possible strong to severe weather episode over the Mid-South. Low pressure will be developing over the Plains along an approaching front. Southerly flow has already established itself over the region with moisture levels increasing, evidenced by rising dewpoints (about 20 degrees overnight last night). As the front nears and the low strengthens, that southerly flow will increase with very warm temperatures and strong south wind (gusts to 30 mph likely) on Thursday. Highs will reach to near 70 with dewpoints nearing 60 by late in the day. The low will move rapidly northeast along the front, which will enter the Mid-South Thursday evening. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop Thursday afternoon to our west and enter the Memphis area very early Friday morning (probably between 3-8am). The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for late Thursday night and early Friday.
The front looks like it will stall out just to our south on Friday so continuing rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms, will linger Friday during the day. It will also be cooler Friday as the wind switches to the northwest with the frontal passage. At this time, it appears the main severe weather threat will be in the form of damaging straight line wind, though large hail or an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Saturday will be much cooler with scattered showers as an upper-level disturbance traverses the region.