It's hard to know how used to something you get until it is taken away. Trust me, you've gotten used to the 70-80 degree temperatures, and you'll be finding out over the next few days just how used to it you are!
A strong early spring cold front is approaching tonight, accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. Nothing severe is expected from this line as it moves into the Memphis area after midnight. Rain will linger through the morning hours Wednesday, but the main feature of this front is the cold temperatures just behind it. Tomorrow afternoon will see temps some 35 degrees colder than the past few afternoons!!
The front will stall out well to our south and sit across the Gulf Coast states, while the jet stream level winds will continue to blow from the southwest. This will set the stage for a very interesting forecast for the next few days as upper-level impulses move along and behind the front with the upper-level wind. The first one of these arrives Thursday morning, bringing a round of precipitation. I believe that in the Memphis area, and along the I-40 corridor, we'll be right on the edge of possible wintry precip. Models today have been vascillating between light rain, snow, and sleet for Thursday morning. Hopefully I'll have a better feeling about it tomorrow, but given that this is almost mid-March in Memphis I'm betting that we won't know exactly what we'll get until it actually arrives. For now, my forecast carries a chance of a wintry mix.
The first impulse should move out by Thursday afternoon, but another could arrive on Friday. Once again, morning temperatures could be critical and I can't rule out another chance of a wintry mix as lows look to again be in the low to mid 30s. Though this scenario will play out with a stronger low on Saturday, I do think we'll finally be warm enough to support all rain this time around, so Saturday looks wet and cool right now. Highs in the 40s is the best we will do until at least Saturday, so bundle up, bring the umbrella, and keep the ice scraper handy, JUST IN CASE. ;-) I'll update this blog as conditions warrant.