Today is "setup" day for the Mid-South ahead of the next major weather ststem to affect the area. We started off fairly pleasant this morning (temps in the lower 60s, some cloud cover, and generally dry conditions), but it will become very warm, quite breezy, and muggy by this afternoon, with a small chance of rain or thunderstorms. This courtesy of a warm front that will be moving north through the region today. The dewpoint, a measure of the amount of humidity in the air, will increase from near 60 this morning to the lower 70s by this evening, while the wind will pick up out of the south and become gusty in the 20-30 mph range. Some breaks in the clouds will help temps climb above normal for the first time in 10 days with highs in the mid 80s expected.
The weather-maker that is headed our way will stay mainly to the west overnight tonight, keeping rain chances low, but with a gusty wind continuing and humidity remaining high in the warm sector of the approaching system, we will see temps only fall into the 70s tonight.
Friday will be the big weather day as the cold front moves across the metro area during the afternoon hours. Rain and t'storms are expected by mid-morning with rain, potentially heavy at times, continuing even after the front passes. Temperatures will likely peak in the morning hours in the upper 70s before falling into the 60s during the afternoon as the front passes and wind switches around to the northwest. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for northern west TN and northeast AR for the potential of 2-3" of rain. The threat of severe weather, though low, is not non-existent as some storms may contain large hail or damaging wind ahead of and along the cold front as it passes through during the day Friday. See the NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook for details.
The front will stall out or move only slowly Saturday, so clouds may hang tough over the metro area with a slight chance of a morning shower. It will be significantly cooler with highs 20 degrees cooler than today - in the mid 60s. Conditions improve by Sunday and a reinforcing fall cold front comes through late in the weekend, bringing dry and cool autumn weather for the first half of next week.