The severe weather threat for tonight continues. As of 2pm, temperatures have reached the mid 70s as projected and dewpoints (a measure of the amount of moisture in the air) have remained in the upper 50s. The heating of the day, combined with plenty of moisture for early spring, an upper-level system moving closer to the region, and a mid-level jet stream will work together to set the stage for possible severe weather.
Severe thunderstorms have already started forming in northeast TX and are moving northeast, while additional development across OK and western AR is expected in the next couple of hours as the upper-level shortwave approaches. Individual supercell storms will likely bring a fair amount of severe weather to much of AR this evening and early tonight, then coalesce into mini-lines, or perhaps a single squall line, of storms as it moves towards the metro area overnight.
The most likely time for severe weather appears to be in the 11pm-4am time frame for the Memphis area, with the possibility of large hail (up to the size of quarters), damaging thunderstorm-generated wind gusts of 60 mph+, and even isolated tornadoes.
Make sure that if you have a NOAA Weather Radio, it has good batteries before going to bed tonight. Another option for Twitter users - you may wish to receive automated weather alerts (if you are in Shelby County) by following @shelbyalerts and set it to alert your mobile device. Weather alerts are the only messages sent to that Twitter account. You should also review severe weather safety tips, since this is the first potential severe weather episode of the spring. They can be found on MemphisWeather.net. MWN's severe weather map will also automatically update as any severe weather bulletins are issued and, of course, StormView Radar will help you track the storms, the warnings, and any severe weather indicators detected by the radar.