With a couple of days of cool and damp weather nearly behind us and our first blast of cold late autumn-like air just around the corner, it is definitely feeling like fall! I don't think too many people are complaining about the recent rain considering the lack of it the past couple of months. It has kept temperatures cool and, honestly, was pretty poorly forecast by the computer models until it was already here.
The clouds clear out this evening as the upper-level low pressure system responsible for the rain moves farther south into the Gulf of Mexico and a huge upper-level trough dives south towards the region from the north. This trough will settle in Thursday and Friday before moving east this weekend (see computer model graphic above with the trough [red line] positioned just to our east on Friday morning). A trough in the upper levels this time of year means only one thing = much cooler weather! Consequently, I expect high temps to struggle to reach 60 on Thursday and remain in the lower half of the 50s on Friday. While 30s are expected across the region Friday morning, Friday night's low will likely be the coldest yet this fall with nearly everyone dropping below freezing. I am forecasting 35 at the airport and in downtown Memphis and 29-32 in the suburbs (perhaps 26-27 in low-lying colder rural areas).
A warm-up begins this weekend as high pressure moves east and brings southerly wind back. Temps should rebound into the 60s by Sunday and near 70 next week. No rain is in the forecast after this evening for the next 5-6 days. Visit the MemphisWeather.net forecast for complete details.