Friday, January 28, 2011

Snow to 60s and back again!

It's included in the climate overview of Memphis on MemphisWeather.net: "If you don't like the weather, stick around, it'll change."  That adage is coming true once again.  After three winter weather events in 16 days between January 9-25, Mid-Southerners are looking forward to temperatures in the 60s on Saturday - what I call a "bonus day" this time of year.  The high temperature is expected to be some 15 degrees above normal tomorrow, while one computer model gives us a long-shot chance at reaching 70.  While I wouldn't count on that, with an average high so far this month of just over 44 degrees and snowfall totals that will rank in the top 5 for the month, mid 60s will be a welcome respite!

1/28/11 6am GFS forecast showing mostly rain
Looking ahead to next week, you may have heard some rumblings about possible winter weather AGAIN.  (Is it ironic that it might happen on Groundhog's Day??  I'm thinking Bill Murray...) While the threat remains, last night and this morning's long-range computer models seem to be latching onto a solution that might spare us the worst. Low pressure will be moving out of Texas and towards the region.  A track to our south could spell problems. The latest model data indicates it may actually pass over us on Tuesday night.  The good news is that would mean a warmer solution and rain, while the bad news could be that a shift slightly farther north would mean thunderstorms.  Either way, a blast of cold air looks likely behind this system, so any left over precipitation Wednesday morning could fall as snow.  I'm keeping an eye on it and will keep you updated.  In the meantime, enjoy this weekend's weather!  A little rain is possible Sunday and Monday, but with above normal temps, I'm willing to bet you're OK with that.

January 28 6am GFS forecast model, valid at midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, showing low pressure near Memphis and cold air/winter precipitation held at bay to our northwest
What do you think? Will we get more winter weather next week?  Leave a comment below.

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3 comments:

Daniel said...

I think it's time for daily forecast discussion videos. =)

Jason H said...

Im hoping for some ice followed by a snow in Randolph County Ar. I know models are not calling for it right now, but Its still almost 4 days out. It can and likely will change again. :-)

Anonymous said...

Well I will definitely be praying for the low going to our north so we get the thunderstorms! Hmmm, that would be close to the third anniversary of the Super Tuesday outbreak!