|Plot of tornado reports on April 14-16, 2011, courtesy TWC|
Unfortunately, there is no respite from the changing seasons, in which warm springtime airmasses collide with lingering winter airmasses, causing a battle that rages in the atmosphere above us. The upcoming week is forecast to be a stormy one with several chances of rain and thunderstorms for much of the eastern half of the nation. The map below shows the total precipitation forecast through Saturday morning from the NWS. 3-5" of rain is expected from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, while the metro area is in an area forecast to see 2-3" of rain this week.
Tuesday is when that storm system, which will be centered to our north, triggers the next potential severe weather outbreak, which will continue into the overnight hours Tuesday night. A Moderate Risk of severe weather is in place for the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (extending as far south as NE AR and NW TN), while a Slight Risk is in place for the Memphis metro area. See the risk area in the map below. I expect a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move through the region on a cold front late Tuesday night, after midnight, through early Wednesday.
|Tuesday-Tuesday night severe weather risk area|
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