|HRRR forecast radar - 3am CDT|
|HRRR forecast radar - 6am CDT|
I then expect somewhat of a break (scattered thunderstorms still possible) before another line moves through in the afternoon hours along the cold front. My thoughts on that have not changed from what I indicated below.
Please see the end of the post below for information on our coverage of these storms and how you can stay "weather aware." Live coverage from MWN is expected to begin ahead of the line of storms coming across AR due to arrive around sunrise.
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Original post from 3:00pm:
Yesterday, I posted about the chances of severe weather for late tonight and again during the day Friday. My thinking has changed little with regards to the timing of the storms. In that post, I showed a couple of graphics indicating that the GFS computer model was running several hours faster than the NAM model, bringing the cold front through during the afternoon while the NAM was showing an evening passage. They have converged a little closer on a solution, but the preferred GFS (in this case) still maintains frontal passage about 3-4pm.
Also, as correctly predicted in yesterday's post, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas just east of Memphis to a Moderate Risk of severe storms. Right now, the metro area is under a Slight Risk for late tonight through the day Friday.
|SPC severe weather risk for Friday|
|Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.|
Hatched area has the greatest risk of significant severe weather.
From late morning through early afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but I'm guessing they won't be very organized or widespread. Some areas could even see some sunshine, which could aid in the destabilization for the afternoon round of storms (that's not a good thing). Then, probably between 1-5pm, I expect another pretty good chance of severe thunderstorms. The biggest threat with these storms, which will likely be supercellular, will be large hail. In fact, as freezing levels lower and wind shear is sufficient, some hail could be very large (golf ball or larger). Some storms could also produce damaging wind and an isolated tornado. All severe activity should move east of the metro area by around the evening rush hour, though areas near the TN River into northeast MS could deal with severe weather, including tornados, through the evening hours.
MWN will have complete coverage of the storms tomorrow (as long as the power stays on!) through our various channels. MemphisWeather.net on the web will have all of the radar, satellite, watches, and warnings information you need. Facebook and Twitter will be used to update the situation as it unfolds. Sign up to receive severe weather alerts via e-mail or on Twitter (@shelbyalerts) and have your NOAA Weather Radio ready when severe weather watches and warnings are issued.
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