The first is a nearly-stalled outflow boundary from the storms to our east that is positioned across Tipton and Fayette counties (see radar image below). Typically in the summertime, a boundary like this is all it takes to spark new thunderstorm development. In addition, a cluster of thunderstorms in south-central Missouri is moving east-southeast. The storms in southeast Missouri are expected to hold together as they move into northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee. These storms could also produce an outflow boundary that could intersect the boundary over the metro area to produce thunderstorms.
|Satellite / radar composite as of 3:20pm Sunday|
I expect any complexes of thunderstorms that form Monday to be well to our north as high pressure aloft caps off convection. A cold front on Tuesday will bring our next chance of rain after this evening.
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