Computer models have been insistent - in their own ways and with each new run of that model - on the solution. The problem was that they didn't agree among themselves. It was an "agree to disagree" situation that made the meteorologist the mediator. That changed this morning.
The bullish NAM model, whose stance had called for a good 2-4"+ of snow Saturday night for the metro for several "runs" (the models generally produce a forecast run four times a day), abruptly changed course with it's morning run. Usually you'll hear me say that I don't get too excited about extremes when models flip-flop like a pandering politician. In this case though, the NAM flipped over to come more in line with the other models. The result is now that the NAM, GFS, and European models all are pretty much in line with the big picture, with only subtle difference in the details (including that the NAM is still slightly stronger with the upper-level disturbance and perhaps a tiny bit colder).
|12Z NAM model indicates precip lingering over the metro at 6am Sunday as cold air filters in on north wind behind the departing low pressure system over eastern Georgia.|
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