Saturday, August 4, 2012

July 2012 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

Yet another well above average month temperature-wise as July finished as the 7th warmest on record despite a "cooler" spell mid-month. There were three daily temperature records tied during the month, including the 4th (100 degrees), 6th (102), and 1st (tied warmest minimum at 80 degrees).  For the year, the average temperature in Memphis continues to be the warmest on record (and it's not even close).  Through July 31st, the average temperature for 2012 of 67.2 degrees was 4.7 degrees above normal, beating the previous record though the end of July by more than 2 degrees (2006, +2.8 degrees).

Precipitation was also well below normal with a total of 2.26" for the month and over half of that amount fell on the 21st! Drought conditions worsened during the month with the metro now classified as being in an extreme drought.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of July was 85.3 degrees, or 2.6 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 94.5 degrees and the average low was 76.2. The coolest temperature of the month was a balmy 73 degrees on the 13th and 29th, while the highest temperature was 103 degrees on the 5th.  There were 24 days in which the high reached 90 degrees or higher and 7 days in which the high reached 100.

Precipitation for the month totaled 2.26", which was 2.33" below average. There were 12 calendar days with measurable rainfall, but only 1 with more than 0.50" (1.21" on the 21st). The peak wind gust was 44 mph from the south on the 7th with an average wind speed for the month of 6.6 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average July temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions was 83.5 degrees with a maximum of 102.3 degrees on the 6th and a minimum of 64.7 degrees on the 29th (the only day the temperature dropped below 70).  July precipitation measured 3.24" via the automated gauge and 3.32" in a manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program. The measured peak wind gust was 23 mph on the 6th. Average relative humidity was a muggy 73%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of July, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.88 degrees, besting all available computer model data. Nearly 72% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast averaged 1.53 degrees of error and fell within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint over 81% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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1 comment:

MWN/Erik said...

Joseph - The data from Memphis Int'l airport is archived by the National Weather Service on their website. The data from Bartlett, TN is from my own weather station which I archive. the MWN forecast accuracy is based on our forecasts for the Memphis area and verification of those forecasts against actual conditions. Thanks for writing!