To sum it up, computer models still indicate a strong possibility of rain on Christmas afternoon changing to snow on Christmas night here in the metro and points north. Low pressure (which is currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest) will move through the Rockies and head across the Southern Plains before turning northeast, tapping into Gulf moisture, and passing just to our south. With plenty of moisture to work with and cold air moving in behind the low, we have the classic setup for snow in the Mid-South. As mentioned yesterday, the arrival of sufficient cold air and remaining moisture have to coincide.
According to the most recent mid-range model data, which is remaining fairly consistent on the big picture, the changeover to snow would occur sometime after 6pm and before midnight Christmas night with precipitation tapering off after midnight (on Wednesday). So while the window of opportunity is somewhat narrow, it's definitely there. Below is this morning's computer model data from the GFS model. The morning European model is similar, with slightly higher amounts on the AR side of the Mississippi River. Total snowfall amounts from both models are somewhere in the 1-4" range.
|The 12Z (morning) model run of the GFS shows anywhere from 1-4" of snow on Christmas night in the metro. This is NOT a forecast, but one possibility from one run of a computer model.|
"I'm dreaming of a White Christmas... "
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