UPDATED 6:30pm: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "mesoscale discussion" which basically outlines the state of the atmosphere and let's us know what they're thinking relative the potential for severe weather. In it, they state that a watch is unlikely (20% chance of issuance) due to a lack of suitable instability to promote widespread thunderstorm development.
|SPC does not expect to have to issue a watch for the area tonight, though a few storms are still possible.|
We'll be nowcasting throughout the evening on Facebook and Twitter. (Links at end of the post.)
UPDATED 5:40pm: Storm Prediction Center graphics within the post below have been updated as of 5:30pm. The tornado risk has been increased ever so slightly, though the risk is still very low (5%). A period of dry weather this afternoon has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s with dewpoints also well into the 60s - favorable conditions for the possibility of severe storms. We have also narrowed the "window of opportunity" to 8-11pm tonight. We'll be nowcasting throughout the evening on Facebook and Twitter. (Links at end of the post.)
ORIGINAL POST WITH UPDATED GRAPHICS:
The Mid-South has entered a very unsettled, wet pattern that will continue into early next week. Despite a 12-hour period here and there with drier weather, the overall pattern will favor waves of rain and chances of thunderstorms until next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Rain encompasses the area this morning as moisture streams in from the south. Currently (9:45am), Tornado Watches are posted for portions of Louisiana and southern Mississippi where the greatest atmospheric instability (rising air) is located. However, during the day, some of that instability will extend north towards our region as a potent upper level system nears the area from the west (see graphic below).
|Upper-level energy, in the form of a low pressure center, will skirt the region, bringing a chance of strong storms this evening.|
|A Slight Risk means the threat for severe weather is elevated. In this case, damaging wind would be the primary threat|
|Damaging wind (58+ mph) chances for tonight. Yellow area means there is a 15% chance that wind gusts of 58+ mph will occur within 25 miles of any point in that area|
|While a tornado is possible with this threat, there is only a 5% chance of one occurring within 25 miles of the metro|
As always, we'll keep you updated on social media throughout the day and tonight and will provide wall-to-wall coverage on Facebook and Twitter if thunderstorms form. Download the MWN mobile apps for the most current information we publish, including radar, local conditions, the latest forecast, watches/warnings, and links to our social feeds. Then, upgrade within the MWN app (on the Alerts tab) to StormWatch+ to receive pinpoint warning information delivered to your Android or Apple device, including Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings that will wake you up if need be. All pertinent links are listed below.
Tomorrow we get a break from the rain as SPRING makes an appearance with highs in the lower 70s and partly cloudy skies! More rain, and potential thunder, arrives for the weekend. We'll have more on that tomorrow...
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