Monday, February 25, 2013

Evening t'storms, then a late winter pattern sets back in

At mid-afternoon, the metro is dry with some places, especially over north MS, getting some sunshine this afternoon.  Not quite the picture the forecast painted this morning! Despite the lack of expected rain today, showers and thunderstorms ARE still on track for tonight.  As of 2pm, the Storm Prediction Center added a large part of southern and central AR and parts of northwest MS to a Slight Risk zone for an enhanced severe weather threat this evening (see below).

While severe storms are not expected in the metro, a few storms that move out of AR could bring some small hail or gusty wind to 40-45 mph, mainly in the 8pm-midnight time frame. A strong low level jet stream of 50-60 mph will be blowing through the storms at 2000-3000 feet above the ground. Some of this wind could be transferred down towards the ground in some storms, producing a minor wind damage threat.  However, the main threat, especially over AR, will be hail due to very cold air aloft that is escorting an upper level low pressure system that will move overhead early Saturday morning.  In addition, very heavy rain is expected as the showers and storms move though.  Regional radar at mid-afternoon (below) shows storms organizing to our southwest that will lift northeast into the region during the evening.

MWN will be nowcasting the storms this evening on Facebook and Twitter.  Tune into the links below for the latest on tonight's storms, including the MWN mobile app with StormView Radar and StormWatch+ severe weather notification (should any warnings be issued).

Behind tonight's storms, the upper-level energy from this system will move through Tuesday morning bringing scattered showers. Temperatures tomorrow will be tempered by clouds and precipitation with highs just above 50. Slightly cooler weather moves in for mid week with highs in the upper 40s, then a blast of cold air arrives from Canada for late week, resulting in even cooler temperatures.  Though a few sprinkles or flurries are possible Friday or Saturday, this is not the type of cold air pattern that traditionally brings significant snow chances.  Sorry snow-lovers! Click here for the complete MWN Forecast.

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