With the surface low passing well to the northwest of the area, a widespread severe weather outbreak is not expected, however there could be enough instability to bring a few strong storms during the afternoon (see video below). The most likely area for severe storms, as depicted within the green outline is over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
|Mid-afternoon satellite and radar composite shows clouds streaming into the area ahead of the next trough. The area outlined in green has a Slight Risk of severe weather on Sunday as a cold front moves through.|
|Probability of severe weather on Sunday. The metro has about a 15% chance of severe storms, but a much higher chance of general thunderstorms. The black hatched area has the best chance of significant severe weather.|
Animation of atmospheric instability (represented as Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE) from Saturday morning through Sunday night. A modest amount of unstable air will be available tomorrow afternoon as storms move through the area, though the most unstable air remains south of the metro across the Lower MS Valley.
One additional brief note: the cold front that moves through tomorrow will stall out to our south early in the week. An upper-level wave will move through late Tuesday, bringing a chance of post-frontal precipitation. Though upper-level temperatures may support a mix of rain and snow, temps near the surface may be a touch too warm for snow at the ground. The best chance for any light snow will north of the metro on Tuesday night. We'll let you know if anything changes!
MemphisWeather.net will nowcast throughout the day Sunday via our social channels, bringing you the latest information on any local threats. Also be sure to download our mobile app for the latest radar, current conditions, and any severe weather alerts that may be issued via StormWatch+. Links to all of our offerings are below.
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