Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Unsettled, but warm, weather pattern for the Mid-South

Above average temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern will dominate the weather in the metro as we head towards the weekend and all the way into early next week. A series of low pressure systems will move by, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. The first moves by to our south tonight with the best rain chances remaining to our south. A few light showers are possible late tonight into the morning hours on Thursday.

Thursday will likely be a mostly cloudy day with highs in the mid 60s before showers begin to move into the region along a weak cold front. Rain becomes likely after 6pm on Thursday and will continue through the overnight hours, ending sometime before sunrise on Friday as the front exits the region.

GFS model forecast radar shows showers moving into the metro Thursday evening.
Friday will a quiet weather day as north breezes bring drier and cooler air into the metro. Highs on Friday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday despite sunny skies, though still near average for early February.

On Saturday, winds switch back around from the south ahead of our next weather system, bringing moisture back to the metro and helping high temperatures climb back to near 60. Showers will begin to develop Saturday night out ahead of a low-pressure system that develops over the Central Plains and moves northeast to the Great Lakes region, sending a cold front through the metro late Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into the area. At this time, organized severe weather is not anticipated but we will continue to monitor the situation and keep you updated should the situation change.

GFS model  showing convective precipitation  indicates the strongest storms will be located south of the metro on Sunday afternoon/evening
Beyond Sunday, differences in the forecast models lead to a great deal of uncertainty in the extended forecast for next week. We'll keep you updated!

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