Tuesday, March 5, 2013

February 2013 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

Temperatures averaged very near normal, while precipitation was below normal for February. On February 18th, a squall line produced strong thunderstorms, but no severe weather in the city despite a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.  Icing created hazardous driving conditions on bridges and overpasses on February 2nd while a light wintry mix fell on the 20th-21st.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of February was 45.2 degrees, or 0.2 degrees below normal. The average high temperature was 53.5 degrees and the average low was 37.0. The coolest temperature of the month was 22 degrees on the 1st, while the highest temperature was 68 degrees on the 7th. There were 8 days on which the low temperature fell to freezing or below and no temperature records tied or broken for the month.

Precipitation for the month totaled 3.85", which was 0.54" below average. There were 11 calendar days with measurable rainfall; 4 recorded totals of 0.5" or more, but none more than 1" (maximum 0.95" on the 18th). Snowfall totaled a trace on February 21st.  The peak wind gust was 38 mph from the east on the 10th with an average wind speed for the month of 8.5 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average February temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions was 43.9 degrees with a maximum of 69.5 degrees on the 7th and a minimum of 20.8 degrees on the 1st. February precipitation measured 4.13" via the Cirrus automated gauge and 3.98" in a manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program. Freezing rain (0.01") was recorded on the 2nd and freezing rain and sleet of 0.04" was measured on the 20th-21st. The measured peak wind gust was 24 mph on the 18th. Average relative humidity was 72%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of February, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 2.35 degrees, lower than all available full-range computer model data and just 0.03 of a degree behind the National Weather Service. More than 62% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast averaged 2.25 degrees error and fell within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint over 66% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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