The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region in a Slight Risk for severe weather. (What is a Slight Risk?) In fact, the slight risk (map below) encompasses most of the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley, part of the Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest and central Gulf Coast as severe storms are possible from Indianapolis to Houston.
|A Slight Risk encompasses a huge section of the Mississippi Valley, including the Memphis metro, on Wednesday.|
|SPC graphic indicating the probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point.|
|GFS computer model projection of the location of the cold front and associated precipitation at 1am Thursday.|
Finally, there is a fair amount of disagreement between the GFS and European models on how long the rain lasts behind the line (and subsequently how much we get), particularly on Thursday. The European indicates a wet day on Thursday, while the progressive GFS dries us out. We'll indicate a likelihood of rain, mainly Thursday morning, but not quite to the extent of the Euro model. Flash flooding will be a concern overnight with the main batch of precip as amounts of 1-2" in a couple of hours is plausible.Another 1" is possible behind the front for totals in the 2-3" range from 6pm Wednesday to 6pm Thursday.
|Projected rainfall totals from Wednesday evening through Thursday, courtesy NOAA. Amounts of 2-2.5" are indicated for the metro.|
We'll continue to keep you updated over the next 48 hours and will nowcast the event itself on our social media channels. Prepare now for the possibility of severe weather after dark Wednesday night and how you will be notified if you are asleep when storms move through. Our StormWatch+ smartphone solution will wake you up if your location is in the path. All links are below.
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