The timing for potential severe weather will be from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. This threat is driven by an approaching low pressure system that will pass by just to our north. As it moves closer, a warm front will lift north of the area, putting the metro in the warm sector of the approaching low and increasing surface-based instability (a necessary ingredient for severe storms). The threat exists until the low moves by and drags a cold front through the region, which should occur by midnight tonight.
We expect the event to unfold with scattered thunderstorms or clusters of storms forming over the Mid-South by 2-3 pm today and continuing into the evening hours, with a line of storms possible to end the event late this evening (8-11pm). The storms will bring the risk of straight-line wind of 60 mph, large hail, and an isolated threat for a tornado. The tornado threat is very low. The risk area and chance of each severe weather type is shown below and is valid as of 8am.
|A Slight Risk of severe weather exists today. The main threats are hail & wind. Click image to enlarge.|
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