Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Enhanced risk of severe storms later today

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK has placed the entire region in a Slight Risk for severe weather today.  At 10:45am, a weakening convective system is moving across northern AR and southern MO, driven by an upper-level disturbance ahead of a cold front.  Storms to our east are associated with a separate disturbance and pose no threat to the Memphis metro.

Latest Lower MS River Valley regional radar imagery.  (Subtract 5 hrs from UTC time on the image for CDT)
As the disturbance gets closer, and perhaps with the aid of an outflow from the storms to our west, storms are expected to develop in an unstable airmass over the Mid-South.  A few thunderstorms are possible by mid-afternoon in the heating of the day as temperatures reach the upper 80s, however storms triggered by the disturbance are more likely from rush hour through the evening hours. The main threat will be straight-line wind, though some hail is also possible. Tornadoes are not expected.

We do not believe there is an overly high chance of severe weather, but sporadic reports of 60 mph wind and small hail are quite possible. Below are graphics from SPC, which will automatically update as new graphics are released.

The Storm Prediction Center has the entire Mid-South in a Slight Risk for late this afternoon and evening.

SPC severe wind probabilities for today. There is a 15% chance of damaging straight -line wind.

SPC severe hail probabilities for today. There is a 15% chance of large hail.
MWN will nowcast any storms that move through the region on our Facebook and Twitter accounts, linked below. Any watches or warnings will be pushed to StormWatch+ in our mobile apps as soon as they are issued by the NWS.

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