Gonna give short term forecasting a shot this morning with the possibility of storms this afternoon using the 11Z HRRR as my primary analysis tool. Lets start off with current data.
|Visible satellite imagery at 1345 UTC. This image shows you what clouds would look like from space.|
|Total cloud cover in percentage at 1400 UTC.|
|Vertical Velocities at 1900 UTC.|
|Most Unstable CAPE at 1800 UTC.|
|Previous hour total precipitation at 1900 UTC.|
To sum everything up, I've used a short term model to try to predict timing of t'storms this afternoon. The HRRR indicates a good chance of t'storms but it was also not very accurate in predicting a deck of clouds just a few hours after initializing. However, I think there's still a good chance of at least some isolated t'storms this afternoon between 12-4 PM and will have to watch to see how things unfold.
--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern
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