SynopsisIt was a bit chilly this morning with temperatures dipping into the 50's with plenty of dry air in the region. This is all due to the long-wave trough that made its way through the region a few days ago. The main feature to focus on in the upcoming forecast is a short-wave trough which could bring some rain chances heading into tomorrow.
|Visible Satellite Image at 10:15 AM. Shows what the atmosphere looks like from space.|
|NAM 500 mb (18,000') vorticity at 15Z Tuesday (10 AM Tuesday)|
|NAM 850 mb (5,000') temperatures and winds at 15Z Tuesday (10 AM Tuesday)|
|NAM sounding for Memphis, TN. Vertical profile of atmosphere at 15Z Tuesday (10 AM Tuesday)|
Beyond tomorrow we can expect winds shifting to the south, bringing warmer temperatures and slowly rising humidity headed toward the weekend.
ConclusionChances for rain and thunderstorms are marginal given all of the atmospheric parameters. The short-wave trough and warm air advection promote rising motion but lack of mid-level moisture and weak temperature inversion will prevent widespread activity. Depending on how far south the trough can dig and how long it takes to move into the area will determine the extent of the strength and coverage of storms. If it digs farther south than this model anticipates then more upper-level energy will be present. More importantly the trough will slow down which will allow for more instability due to morning surface heating. Of course a later arrival would also push back precipitation a few hours toward the late morning to early afternoon.
William's Memphis Forecast
A few clouds with a high of 84, low of 65.
Scattered showers (mainly in the morning) with a high of 83, low of 67. 40% chance of rain.
A few clouds with a high of 87, low of 68.
A few clouds with a high of 89, low of 70.
--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern
[Comments by MWN Meteorologist Erik Proseus noted and italicized]
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