[EP: Though this discussion is a little more technical than our typical blog, it does highlight the different atmospheric processes that will promote rain and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. William is obviously getting a good grasp of the atmosphere in his meteorology classes! For the official MWN Forecast, click here.]
SynopsisA unique set up with tropical moisture to our south and a digging trough to our north will provide interesting weather heading into the weekend. However, this weather will be short-lived, bringing beautiful fall conditions to wrap up the weekend.
AnalysisBelow we will review what one of the weather models (NAM) is showing to see why rain looks so likely tomorrow into Saturday morning.
|NAM 200 mb (38,000') winds at 03Z Saturday (10pm Friday)|
|NAM 500 mb (18,000') vorticity at 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday)|
|NAM 850 mb (5,000') temperatures and winds at 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday)|
|NAM Composite Reflectivity (dBZ) at 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday)|
This analysis of one of the models is not an exact forecast of what is going to happen, but it does give you an idea of the processes that are occurring to suggest the rainfall that we're expected to receive. Other weather models are similar in their presentation and the hardest part is going to be nailing amounts and exact timing of precipitation.
SummaryWidespread precipitation looks quite possible as early as tomorrow morning, but the best dynamics look to be moving through late tomorrow afternoon and well into the evening. Mid-level moisture will spread over the region with upper-level energy providing most of the uplift for showers and thunderstorms. Clearing looks possible mid-day Saturday with things shaping up for a beautiful fall weekend.
William's Memphis ForecastFriday: Overcast with a high of 82, low of 65. Near 100% chance of rain. Precipitation amounts of about an inch.
Saturday: Decreasing clouds with a high of 79, low of 58.
Sunday: Sunny skies with a high of 83, low of 60.
--William Churchill (MWN Social Media Intern)
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