A very cold airmass residing over north-central Canada is poised to make a run into the central portion of the U.S. then continue to dive south into the southeast U.S. as a major trough sets up over the eastern half of the nation. This will bring our coldest temperatures yet this fall and likely drop everyone - including those in the warmest parts of the Bluff City - below freezing Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Let's take a look at a couple of representations of the cold air infiltration. First, from the European model, showing the temperature anomalies (departure from normal) at ~5,000' up (below). Keep your eye on the purple area (coldest temps relative to normal) in Canada as it drops south into the Mid-South. The loop begins Saturday morning and ends Thursday morning. (All graphics below courtesy of WeatherBell.com.)
Next, we look at the European model's U.S. counterpart, the GFS, for a little closer look. Below we see near-surface temperatures (actual, not departure from normal) beginning Sunday evening and running through Thursday morning. Pretty easy to spot the leading edge of cold air as it dives south.
A few snapshots of near-surface temperatures from the European model show it's projections for Tuesday afternoon maximum temperatures and Thursday morning low temperatures. Note that actual daily high temperatures on Tuesday will probably occur at midnight (maybe near 50), with temps falling throughout the day.
|European model forecast maximum temperatures between noon-6pm Tuesday (the high for the day will likely occur at midnight, with temperatures falling throughout the day).|
|European model forecast minimum temperatures for Thursday morning.|
Below is the expected RAINFALL amounts from the cold front during the morning hours on Tuesday. You'll notice by the amounts (trace to a couple of hundredths) that the amounts are minimal. This will NOT be a major rain maker. I can also tell you that it is ALL LIQUID. You're going to have to wait until deeper in the season for something of the non-liquid variety.
|Expected rainfall amounts on Tuesday morning with this cold front are very light.|
|Wind chill readings in the 20s are forecast early Tuesday evening as north wind reaches as high as 20-30 mph.|
So, are you ready for some cold weather (even for a couple days) or are you already longing for summer warmth?
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