Clouds have already infiltrated Mid-South skies ahead of a developing low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico. This low will lift through the southeast U.S. tonight into Sunday wrapping precipitation around the backside of it and into mainly eastern parts of the Mid-South. The Memphis metro figured to be on the back side of the precipitation shield overnight, with heavy rain well to our southeast and nearly dry conditions just across the river in AR. The best chances of light rain will be overnight tonight with up to 0.10" possible by Sunday morning. Temperatures will be sufficiently warm to keep the precip all rain.
|GFS forecast precipitation amounts through Sunday evening. About 0.10" is possible in the metro, though flooding will be a concern over parts of the southeast with totals near 3".|
Models are split on whether we see anything measurable, but sprinkles or flurries are certainly possible. To be honest, this is not the type of pattern we usually see much in the way of precipitation from, especially anything accumulating, but it's worth mentioning. A couple of model solutions (none are the official forecast!) are shown below. The NAM model has been the most aggressive, bringing a dusting of snow by Monday morning, The GFS has consistently been dry, and the European has tended to side with the GFS, while the Canadians (snow-lovers that they are) lean towards the NAM. IF we see anything, it won't be much (the Panic Meter sits with disinterest at a 1 out of 10), but the threat of it should keep schools closed for another week. :-)
|Sat morning NAM model forecast of total snowfall through Monday. The NAM is the most aggressive with snow and produces a little more than a dusting across the metro Sunday night.|
|Last night's Canadian model forecasts about 0.10" of snow by Monday morning.|
Monday will be just plain cold in the wake of the front. Lows in the mid 20s in the morning will have trouble getting any higher than the mid 30s (wind chills in the 20s) even with some afternoon sun, setting the stage for a very cold start to New Year's Eve day. For those attending the Liberty Bowl Tuesday afternoon, dress warmly! As the Bulldogs show Rice how football is played in the southeast (#HailState), temps will only top out in the mid 40s. A cold but dry night is expected as 2014 is rung in Tuesday night.
Models disagree widely on the first few days of 2014, but that's a topic for another blog! For the complete, and official, MWN Forecast, download the MWN mobile apps linked below or click here for the forecast on our mobile-ready website.
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!