Leading into Sunday, a very warm day is expected Saturday with highs near 60 and low rain chances. Saturday night, rain is expected to move in as a cold front arrives between 9pm and midnight. The front will cause temps to fall overnight to the mid 30s. It appears that the overnight wave of precipitation will move out Sunday morning, so we expect that precipitation will remain all rain into Sunday morning despite it being cold.
During the day Sunday, we had thought a few days ago that it would be dry. Models are now painting a wetter picture as the front stalls just south of us and an upper-level low moves into the region. Temperatures should remain in the 30s, but above freezing, most of Sunday until the sun goes down so we're again expecting all liquid precip and a cold day.
By Sunday evening, as temperatures fall near the surface and aloft, there is a decent chance that precip will change to some wintry form before tailing off overnight. In fact, leading to this measured degree of confidence is the fact that 3 of the major weather models that go out that far all show some form of wintry precip. Our best guess (subject to change of course) is that during the Super Bowl rain will mix with sleet and/or freezing rain, then to snow/sleet as temps continue to slowly fall, especially in west TN and eastern AR.
Below you will see a couple of model graphics for midnight Sunday night that basically show a mixed bag of precip types in the area. The top one is from the GFS, the bottom from the NAM (graphics courtesy WeatherBell). The NAM seems to be showing some rain still around, but it also places the 32 degree line (in red) south of Memphis, so we believe it's precip type is a little off.
|GFS model of precip type at midnight Sunday night. Green is rain, orange is sleet, pink is freezing rain, blue is snow.|
|NAM model of precip type at midnight Sunday night. Same color scheme as above.|
|Freezing rain probabilities from the Weather Prediction Center from noon Sunday through noon Monday.|
|1"+ snow probabilities from the Weather Prediction Center from noon Sunday through noon Monday.|
After this event, Tuesday also looks wet, but warm enough for rain with precip moving out overnight as temps fall. The chance of wintry weather is fairly low Tuesday night. Cold weather sticks around and there could be another chance of mixed precipitation by Friday, however that is a week out so a lot can change. Stay updated with the latest info by following our social media channels and of course get the latest current metro conditions and the MWN Forecast via our mobile apps and website (all linked below).
--Erik Proseus, MWN Meteorologist
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