After a much colder than average January for the Memphis metro we'll finally start to see a warmer pattern take shape for the next few days. A building ridge to our east will help bring warmer, moist air into the region into this weekend. As you can probably expect, with any warm flow coming off the Gulf you're also going to get plenty of chances for rain in the forecast. We'll wrap up discussion with a potentially significant system affecting the Mid-South next week (with relatively cold air in the area) before yet another arctic airmass overtakes the region.
January Climate Summary:
Before we talk about the upcoming weather, lets take a look at just how cold this January was.
|2-meter Temperature Anomalies for (most of) January|
Significant warming begins today with gusty south winds ushering warmer, moist air into the Mid-South. Expect this to continue through Saturday with rain chances beginning Friday and increasing into Saturday.
|GFS 500 mb Normalized Geopotential Height Anomalies mid-day Saturday|
|GFS 850 mb Temperatures and Winds mid-day Saturday|
|GFS 2-meter Maximum Temperatures for Saturday|
|GFS Mean Sea Level Pressure Normalized Anomalies for Sunday night|
Tuesday is where the forecast gets quite tricky, as we have relatively cold air over the area with a low pressure system and its associated precipitation setting up somewhere near the Mid-South.
|GFS 3-hourly Precipitable Water Values for Tuesday afternoon|
Unfortunately I cannot answer all the questions concerning possible winter weather accumulations from this storm system (no one can this far out). This winter weather set up is similar to what we are used to with borderline temperature problems leading up to the event. We will not know for sure the extent of the cold air and the exact track of the low pressure system until the event is actually happening. Both of these things are extremely important as small changes in either factor will lead to huge differences in precipitation types and amounts. However, things will become a bit more clear over the next few days and we'll be sure to let you know when we have a better idea of possible precipitation types and accumulations. As of now we're confident the event will start as rain with a changeover of precipitation possible during the latter half of Tuesday and heading into Wednesday.
|GFS 3-hour Precipitation Amounts and 850 mb Temperatures for Tuesday afternoon|
|GFS Mean Sea Level Pressure Normalized Anomalies for next Thursday night|
Get full details on the forecast from MWN by clicking here.
-William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern
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