A strong cold front and low pressure system will move from the Plains into the Great Lakes over the next 36 hours, setting the stage for thunderstorms in the metro and even the possibility of severe weather across the Plains and into the western portions of the Mississippi Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. In fact, we'll feel the effects of the potency of this system tomorrow in the form of southerly wind that gusts up to 30-35 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire region. The Mid-South sits just east of a slight risk for severe weather as the storms will likely be in a weakening state as they move through our area Thursday night, owing to decreasing instability as the sun sets and better atmospheric dynamics as the low goes well to our north. However, rain and thunder are likely beginning Friday afternoon and into the night (especially before midnight).
|A Slight Risk of severe weather exists to our west Thursday and Thursday night. Storms will be weakening as they approach the metro Thursday night.|
|Expected rainfall between 7pm Thursday and 1am Friday from the NAM computer model. A half inch or so or rain is a reasonable expectation.|
|A Slight Risk of severe weather exists for the Mid-South on Friday night. Hail would be the primary threat and the threat area will be updated several times prior to Friday evening.|
|Forecast instability from the NAM computer model valid Friday evening at 10pm. These values are plenty sufficient for thunderstorms across the area.|
|Forecast rainfall amounts overnight Friday night from the NAM model. Another half inch of rain is possible on top of Thursday night's rain.|
Storms should be out of the area by sunrise Saturday and a dry and not unpleasant weekend is in store with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Next week looks mild overall with 70s likely multiple days and only a slight chance of rain Monday then better chances by mid-week as another springtime weather system approaches. You can find the complete MWN Forecast here or in our mobile apps.
Lastly, readers of this blog are getting the first look at a "draft" version of a new product MWN is developing that will help our readers and followers know when hazardous weather is possible, what the chances are, and how severe the impacts potentially could be. For now, we're calling it our "Memphis Metro Significant Weather Outlook" and today's outlook is posted below. We would LOVE your feedback! It is in testing and we're open to any and all suggestions. You can drop your comments to us on social media or comment on this blog. We promise to consider all suggestions. This is likely NOT the final way we'll present this outlook, but the one below IS valid for the next 3 days.
--Erik Proseus, MWN Meteorologist
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