According to SPC, there is a 30% probability of wind 60 mph or greater, a 15% chance of 1" hail, and a 5% risk of a tornado in the metro (see graphic below). The expected timing for the storms is between 6-10pm for the metro, or just before and during the Grizzlies-Thunder playoff game. Unfortunately it appears the Thunder are bringing their Oklahoma City storms with them! Most storms should be moving east of the metro by 10pm so there is little risk of severe weather after that time.
|Severe weather threats for this evening|
Below is a look at what one high-resolution model with a good track record (the HRRR) thinks radar will look like at 7pm and 10pm, or near the beginning and end of the event in Shelby County. NOTE: This is a MODEL, not a FORECAST and is intended to provide an idea of what will unfold. The first line of storms is fueled by the upper level disturbance, while the second line in central AR at 7pm is along the cold front. This model believes the second line falls apart as it nears the metro due to it moving into a "worked over" atmosphere that previously was stormy, as well as heating being on the decline.
Finally, here is our MWN Significant Weather Outlook for today, highlighting the damaging wind threat this evening. In addition, the storms could be heavy rain producers, even though they will move through fairly quickly. Some minor flooding in urban areas could be possible behind heavy downpours.
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