The upper-level low that lingered over the region late last week and into the weekend and brought rounds of showers and thunderstorms nearly daily has weakened and is lifting out today, taking with it the rain chances. That low (rather a "trough" now) will be replaced by an upper level ridge of high pressure "nosing" into the area the next couple of days. This will mean nearly nil chances of thunderstorms and less cloud cover, which also means temperatures will warm up.
|A ridge of high pressure over Texas and northern Mexico will push into the Mid-South the next couple days, suppressing thunderstorms and pushing the storm track to our north.|
With low-level moisture still in place, muggy conditions will combine with the heat, resulting in the return of the dreaded heat index! Memphis has so far (officially) avoided reaching 90 degrees in 2014, but that streak comes to an end Wednesday, if not tomorrow. Wednesday's projected high is 93, but the heat index could briefly reach the century mark in the afternoon. This is a hazardous level for those unaccustomed to a Memphis summer, as well as those who are young, old, or not physically well. For the rest of us, a heat index of 105 is considered hazardous, though frequent breaks are still a good idea with temperatures in the 90s.
By Thursday, another cold front moves towards the area from the north. It is being pushed south by low pressure that will move across the Plains tomorrow and into the Ohio Valley Wednesday, bringing with it a good chance of severe weather to that region of the country. As the front sinks into our area Thursday morning, it will weaken considerably as it encounters high pressure and eventually stall out near or just south of the area. It will bring our next chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and, with it hanging around into the early part of the weekend, periods of thunderstorms and showers will be possible (especially during daytime heating) Friday and Saturday as well. If you're headed to the FESJC tournament, plan for muggy and very warm conditions (temps likely near 90) with scattered t'storms.
|A cold front will stall out, or become stationary, across the region from Thursday into Saturday, bringing additional chances of rain and t'storms.|
By Sunday, models differ slightly but indicate a retreat of that front back to our north. That retreat could reduce rain chances slightly, however it looks to make one more run at us early next week, perhaps pushing all the way through Monday or Tuesday. We'll have more details on that as it gets closer.
In the meantime, if you were complaining about cool weather a few weeks ago, your hot weather is back! If you love humidity, you'll love this week. And if you didn't like all the rain, you get a few dry days. However, if you want cool crisp mornings and pleasant afternoons, hang tight. October is only 5 months away!
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