Thunderstorms are likely to begin organizing over Central and Western Arkansas Monday morning ahead of a cold front pushing eastward through the state. A strong low pressure system in Missouri will travel northeast during the day, dragging the cold front into the Mid-South This should push what will become an extensive line of thunderstorms into the metro area sometime between Monday afternoon and early evening. With the timing of storms currently expected at what we call "peak heating", the amount of instability in place should be maximized and sufficient for severe weather. This is especially true considering this system will carry a high amount of wind energy (or wind shear) aloft, which combined with the instability will aid the line of storms to become well organized and sustained, and more easily able to transfer those high wind speeds aloft to the surface.
|GFS model forecast at 4 PM Monday, October 13, depicts a line of strong to severe thunderstorms entering|
the Memphis metro area at that time.
|Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Convective Outlook valid for Monday. The entire metro area is outlooked|
in a 30% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point.
Kevin Terry, MWN
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