Below are the temperature anomalies (departure from normal) for 5-day windows through 2 weeks from now. Shown are two versions of the same model - the Global Forecast System (left) and GFS Ensemble (right). The European model supports this general cold idea as well through at least 10 days. You'll see that the models are similar in the days 1-5 and 6-10 periods while the GFS stays colder longer (into the day 11-15 period).
Nov 9-14 daily avg temp: 54 F - dept from normal: -9 F = GFS forecast avg temp: 45 F
Nov 14-19 daily avg temp: 52 F - dept from normal: -15 F = GFS forecast avg temp: 37 F
Nov 19-24 daily avg temp: 50 F -dept from normal: -20 F = GFS forecast avg temp: 30 F
Wow! Remember that the daily average temperature is the average of the high and the low temps. If that daily average of 30F were to occur, it means that the low temps would be well down into the 20s with highs likely only in the 30s to near 40! Below are the forecast highs and lows from the GEFS model shown above (right hand panels) for the next 2 weeks. Note that these temps tend to run 2-4 degrees cooler than actual and are useful only for trend analysis once you get beyond the first week or so, NOT for actual temperature forecasting. It just gives us an idea of what to expect.
|GEFS forecast highs and lows for the next 2 weeks at Memphis. After the first 5-7 days, this information is only useful for trend analysis, not actual temperature forecasting.|
As far as precipitation, when it stays this cold for this long, with average daily temps in the 30s, any system with precipitation that gets close will have to be monitored carefully for the possibility of some type of freezing. The first one to watch will be next weekend. It's still way too early to know exactly what to expect and when, but it bears monitoring, which we'll be doing all week long. We will keep you updated!
One thing is for certain - if you haven't gotten out the cold weather clothes or fired up the heater yet, this week will be when you need them! Tomorrow, we'll release our 2014-2015 Winter Outlook which may provide an idea if this is a trend for the upcoming winter or not. Stay tuned!
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