Monday will be a "tweener" day as the front sinks further south in to Mississippi and weak high pressure builds in on the back side of the front. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s in the afternoon, which is very near normal, with mainly overcast conditions.
By Tuesday, the front will pull back to the north as low pressure develops in east Texas and moves northeast across AR. This will spread rain back into the region by the afternoon hours as temperatures climb to similar levels as Monday. Tuesday night will see widespread rainfall and increasing wind as the low tracks somewhere very close to the metro. Computer models still have some variation with respect to the ultimate track, and strength, of the low, but it will be close enough to bring gusty wind and periods of heavy rain as temperatures remain in the 40s. The NAM model shown below indicates the low nearly over Memphis at midnight Tuesday night.
|The NAM model depicting low pressure nearly over Memphis at midnight Tuesday night. Snow is wrapping in on the northwest side of the system from MO into western AR while strong storms are possible southeast of the metro. (WxBell)|
|The best chance of severe weather will be to our south on Tuesday as the most unstable air is pulled north by the developing low pressure. (SPC)|
|The NAM model predicts temperatures falling into the 30s Wednesday morning. (WxBell)|
|Snowfall probabilities are minimal in the metro, but much higher not far to our northwest. (WPC)|
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