Today (Saturday) was a transition day as humidity increased (dewpoints reached the mid 60s to near 70), temperatures were the warmest yet this year (exceeding yesterday's "warmest" by a couple more degrees at 95), and a few summertime airmass showers popped up in north MS, which is a good indicator that moisture and instability is working its way north from the Gulf of Mexico.
AnalysisA dry continental airmass of Canadian origin dominated surface conditions the past week, but it has moved away with high pressure over the western Atlantic and southeast states now pulling warm moist Gulf air into the region on southerly wind. Meanwhile, at the upper levels a large, hot ridge of high pressure sits overhead. This combination has meant above normal temperatures and increasing humidity to start the weekend with a few afternoon showers forming to our south where moisture is a little more plentiful.
|The North American Model (NAM) depiction of dewpoints at 7pm this evening, showing widespread values near 70 degrees across the region. 70 is generally the level where most people really start to notice it getting sticky.|
|The Global Forecast Ssytem (GFS) model for Sunday evening shows a large ridge of high pressure dominating the central portion of the country. It is providing the above normal temperatures for the area "under" the ridge.|
As we head into the end of the week, it appears that weak low pressure drops in to our east with a cool front dropping south from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South late Thursday or early Friday. As expected, that means more rain and thunderstorm chances, but also slightly cooler temperatures, especially by next weekend when highs should be back down in the mid 80s. Being that that is still a week away, and this is summer, that could all change. For now, be prepared for daily rain chances, humid conditions, and varying degrees of heat depending on cloud cover and coverage of thunderstorms each day.
Click here for the complete detailed MWN Forecast and check back regularly this week as rain chances in particular could change from day to day!
A couple notes on #TeamMWN
Finally, I want to take a moment to make a public thank you to one of #TeamMWN's longtime social media nowcasters. Patrick Luckett has been with MWN for nearly 4 years (!) and been a very reliable member of the team. He's stayed up late, gotten up early, and worked long hours to keep you all well-informed with his great updates on our social media accounts in good weather and bad. Patrick has accepted a full-time job this summer with the Department of Defense here in the Mid-South as he finishes up his schooling and prepares to become a "real meteorologist." :-) I know he'll do a great job wherever life takes him. You may see /PL fill in a couple of times here this summer, but his regular schedule with MWN is coming to a close. Please join me in wishing him well!
And while I'm on the #TeamMWN topic, many regular followers know that William Churchill (/WC) served MWN for a good while as well and recently stepped aside as he begins a career with the National Weather Service. William will be getting married this summer and finishing his NWS internship then starting his career later in 2016. I also wish William and Kylie all the best and thank him, again, for his dedication to MWN the past few years!
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