Here's a look at the estimated rainfall totals for the entire storm thus far (as of 11:00 AM). pic.twitter.com/x5n6GT3y68— NWS Lake Charles (@NWSLakeCharles) August 13, 2016
Unfortunately, today brings another day of heavy rain in some of the same areas. The low is centered over west-central Louisiana this morning and is combining with abundant atmospheric moisture fed by anomalously warm waters in the norther Gulf of Mexico to produce very high rainfall rates of multiple inches per hour in the heaviest storms.
Here are the forecast rainfall totals for today. This is in addition to rain that already fell yesterday. pic.twitter.com/W44KvbPISD— NWS Lake Charles (@NWSLakeCharles) August 13, 2016
With respect to how how this system affects Mid-South weather, the effect is indirect, as the low moves very little, into northwest Louisiana by Sunday morning. However, it will weaken a bit and merge with a frontal system that is loitering to our northwest. The front will move little, but act as a conveyor belt for the energy and rainfall from the low to move along the front northeast into the norther Mid-South and then the Ohio Valley.
With the metro sitting firmly in the "warm sector" south of the front, the proximity of front to the northwest, the low to the southwest, and upper level energy moving over the area will mean scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly during the warmer parts of the day this weekend with most people seeing a good chance of rain, especially Sunday and Monday. Abundant moisture is in place overhead, which means that any showers or storms that form will be capable of heavy downpours. Fortunately, showers and thunderstorm won't be sitting in one place very long, which should reduce the flash flooding threat this weekend in the metro.
Closer to the front though, from northern AR into southern MO, rain and storms could "train" over the same areas repeatedly, thus setting the stage for higher risk of flash flooding.
|NOAA/NWS forecast rainfall amounts through Monday evening indicate where the plume of heaviest rain to our west, although we could see more than an inch of rain the next couple days. Graphic courtesy WxBell.|
Heading into next week, the weather pattern remains stagnant as the front sits just to our north. Rain chances remain at least 50/50 each day through at least Thursday. This wet pattern will mean a couple of things. First, periods of heavy rainfall will be possible each day, which will make up for our recent dry weather that for some is now going on two weeks.
Also, temperatures will remain warm and humidity high, but we're not expecting to see 90° again for much of the next week. That may mean an end to the second-longest streak of daily average temperatures above 80° in the next few days. It currently stands at 64 days at Memphis International Airport. We also are in the midst of a stretch of 77 days with high temperatures at or above 85°. There's a good chance that will be broken in the next week as well with highs forecast in the mid 80s for much of next week. Finally, our streak with no temperatures in the 60s also stands at 64 days as of today. The fact that dewpoints will remain above 70 during this wet week ahead will likely keep that second-longest such streak intact.
Stay up to date with our latest forecast information and Mid-South radar via the MWN mobile apps or our website and social media streams. Links to all are provided below.
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, Google+, and Instagram
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
|MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador||Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder|