Cold front arrivesTonight's cold front should bring a temporary end to most everyone's complaints as it pushes a good deal of humidity and our rain chances to the south for a couple days! We'll still have a good chance of showers this evening as the front moves through the Mid-South, so plan ahead if you have outdoor plans. The front pushes through the metro between midnight and dawn Sunday, bringing an end to the showers and switching wind to the northwest.
|The national surface map for Sunday morning shows a cold front just to the south of the metro where it will remain for a couple of days. This will provide for drier air and north wind, leading to more pleasant conditions locally.|
Early week forecastBy Monday morning, temperatures are expected to be in the 60s area-wide for the first time since June 10! This will mark an end to the 72-day streak with no temperatures in the 60s at Memphis International Airport that ranks second longest of all-time behind the hot hot summer of 1980. A very nice day is ahead on Monday with highs in the upper 80s and continued low humidity (dewpoints in the lower 60s).
The pattern starts to shift Tuesday into Wednesday, as the front to our south returns to the north as a warm front and higher humidity values return. We'll be back in a more typical summertime pattern with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the mid 70s with low chances of thunderstorms each day to end the week thanks to upper level high pressure ridging over the southeast U.S.
|By Wednesday morning, that upper level trough is gone and a ridge of high pressure has regained control over weather in the southeastern U.S. The GFS model at 500mb is shown once again. Graphic courtesy PivotalWeather.|
On Long-Range Tropical ForecastsFinally, a note on long-range tropical forecasts as it appears we head into a more active period in the Atlantic Ocean and perhaps Gulf of Mexico. Some weather entities on social media feed on the long-range models "predictions" of close encounters, or landfalls, of strong hurricanes more than a week or even two out. Our advice: "Beware the Share." Rather than sharing these "hype-casts" or "click-bait," we recommend blocking or un-following the account, especially if the post ends with "Please like/share this post!"
The only time we post longer-range forecasts (beyond 7 days) is if there is A) some model consensus between models and consecutive runs of those models, and B) it's within about a week of impact. Even then, we will also post caveats with those forecasts, as they're really only useful for trend analysis and not exact forecasting. It is near impossible to predict the exact landfall point (or even general area) of a tropical system more than about 5 days out. We simply ask that you be conscientious consumers of information and use some common sense.
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|MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador||Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder|