Sunday will see a return of high cloud cover ahead of the next storm system that is the main subject of this blog. Temperatures Sunday will start chilly - in the 30s - but climb to the mid 60s as south wind brings in warmer air.
On Sunday night, we'll begin to see the early stages of a major weather system that will traverse the Mid-South on Monday. Clouds thicken and lower and south wind increases further overnight with scattered showers moving into the metro before dawn Monday. The morning rush hour will likely be wet and breezy with temperatures in the mid 50s. This pattern continues through the morning hours with temperatures rusing into the low to mid 60s as dewpoints (humidity) continues to increase as Gulf moisture moves into the region on gusty south wind.
|Forecast radar valid Monday at 6am showing showers over the region with heavier rainfall entering western AR, which will serve as the "main course" later in the day. All graphics courtesy PivotalWeather.com|
|At 3pm Monday, the NAM (North American) model shows weak low pressure in eastern AR with surface wind in the 25-30 mph range (pinks) on its eastern side over the metro.|
|A little higher up, 3pm wind at 850mb (about 4,300') is forecast to be approaching 75 knots, or 85 mph, which are extreme values. Some of that wind could be "drug" to the surface by intense rainfall, resulting in severe wind gusts.|
|Precipitable water (PW) values near 1.50" are in the 90th percentile for this time of year. PW represents the amount of moisture in a column of air and values this high are supportive of high rainfall rates.|
|The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center forecast calls for over 2" of rain through Monday over the metro. (WxBell)|
To recap, the key takeaways for Monday are:
- Expect increasing rain intensity and wind values peak in the late afternoon hours.
- A few wind gusts to severe strength (60 mph) are possible due to very strong wind fields aloft.
- Total rainfall of 2"+ is expected with some areas of ponding likely, especially around afternoon rush hour. Flash flooding is possible, despite recent drought, due to rainfall intensity.
- Hail and tornado probabilities are low, but not zero.
- Plan for a wet commute in the morning and possibly hazardous weather for the afternoon commute.
By late Monday evening, we expect the system to pass, wind to let up a fair amount, and rain to stop. Exact timing can still change and will be updated as necessary. Stay tuned to the MWN mobile app and our social media feeds for the latest information.
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
|MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador||Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder|