Wednesday and ThursdayA front earlier this week is basically a non-factor now as we head into the middle of the week and start making plans for the weekend. A few pop-up showers are possible this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon, but coverage should be minimal with temperatures well into the 80s (10°+ warmer than average for this time of year).
By Thursday night, a cold front drops south into the metro and brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I expect the evening hours to only have small chances, but they'll increase overnight as the front stalls along I-40 like rush hour traffic with multiple accidents in progress. If you're headed to FedExForum to cheer Fizz and the Grizz and chide the refs, you should be in pretty good shape, though some rain might start to fall in sync with the streamers from the rafters about 11pm (#TakeThatForData)!
FridayThe front will likely stall along the I-40 corridor all day (because that's why I-40 exists - for fronts to know where to stop). Building instability to its south over north MS and energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere going by to its north will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day and into Friday evening. There could be a few strong storms during the PM hours, especially over north MS.
|The North American Model (NAM) shows the front roughly along I-40 Friday afternoon with instability ("storm fuel," measured by CAPE) along and south of the front where the best chance of storms will exist.|
|A Marginal Risk (category 1/5) of severe weather exists Friday across the area. A couple storms could contain strong wind.|
SaturdayThe low pressure system in AR looks like it'll also take I-40 eastbound and move just about over Memphis by mid-day. Models differ some on placement of the low, the warm front pulling north, and timing of a cold front that the low drags across the area. However, without trying to nail down exact details, expect Saturday to be a wet day, and potentially a washout for at least a portion of the day. As the low draws near, thunderstorm chances increase markedly, as does the likelihood of heavy rain. Right now, the morning and early afternoon hours are most "under the gun," with conditions improving steadily as we head towards Game 4 Saturday night.
|The NAM model expects low pressure to be nearing the metro, dragging a cold front (blue line) towards the MS River by early afternoon Saturday. The red line is a warm front that had previously stalled along I-40 on Friday.|
|Total rainfall forecast through Monday morning. Widespread 2-3" totals are likely over the next 4-5 days. (NOAA/WPC)|
Sunday into next weekWithe the low to the east and northwest wind wrapping around it, Sunday will be cooler and likely start off cloudy with clouds diminishing by afternoon or evening. A stray shower is possible as temperatures that start near 50 get no higher than the mid 60s on gusty northwest wind. It'll feel more like early spring than the early summer we have started to notice lately!
Early next week promises a return to nice spring-like conditions with abundant sunshine and highs in the 70s, rising to 80 by Wednesday. Sounds like something to look forward to!
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