|Visible satellite imagery at mid-day Wednesday, described below. (SSEC/RealEarth - data is preliminary and non-operational) Click here if image does not loop.|
ThursdayThe scenario changes a bit tomorrow as storms will upstream of the Mid-South start infringing on the northern periphery of the high pressure system dominating our area tonight. As they do, outflow boundaries from said storm systems work their way south and encounter our warm, moist airmass. I expect that by Thursday morning we'll start seeing increasing thunderstorm chances. I currently have a 50/50 chance of storms in the Thursday forecast, including during the morning hours. Scattered storms could continue into the afternoon unless a more organized complex happens to move through during the morning, in which case it could scrub the instability from the atmosphere long enough to put a damper on afternoon storms. In any case, be prepared for more thunderstorms tomorrow than we have see previously this week.
|The late afternoon run of the HRRR high-resolution model, showing "future radar" through 11am Thursday. It indicates the possibility of a few t'storms overnight (which I'm not sure will actually happen) and more organized chances by mid-morning. The HRRR can be a bit aggressive in its handling of precipitation, but gives us an idea of what to watch out for! (WxBell - click here if image does not loop)|
Severe weather chancesAs for severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center says we have a Slight Risk (category 2 of 5) of damaging wind in storms on Thursday. Any storms will also be capable of very heavy rain thanks to humidity thick enough to slice with a knife, and perhaps some small hail.
|A Slight Risk (category 2/5) of severe weather is forecast Thursday by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).|
This weekendHeading into the weekend, I expect conditions not unlike what we've experienced to start the week. Hot and humid with a few afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. By Sunday evening, a "for real" cold front looks to make a run at us and move through overnight. This front will bring increased chances of rain and thunder late Sunday into early Monday, but then drier and less humid weather to start next week. Let's hope!
As always, get the latest weather information for Memphis via our social media feeds and MWN Forecast, which you can find online and in our apps. Also in the apps, local radar and current conditions, as well as our Twitter feed for the most recent updates. Be sure to check it out!
Follow MWN on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+
Visit MemphisWeather.net on the web or m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone.
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!
|MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador||Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder|