Starting with the next couple of days, the very moist atmosphere from the surface up, along with a fairly non-descript upper level pattern and lack of meaningful surface fronts, means we'll be dealing with hit and miss showers and thunderstorms through the evening and into early Sunday. The lack of wind aloft means the severe threat is low, but also means that anything that forms won't move very fast, so some spots could get decent rain totals from any shower or thunderstorm the next day or so.
|The surface map at mid-day Sunday shows a stalled out weak front south of the area with high rain chances covering the metro, and large parts of the southeast in fact. (NOAA)|
As we head into the day Sunday, rain chances increase as even more moisture moves north into the region and an upper level trough approaches from the west. All outdoor activities on Sunday need to have a rain plan. I don't expect a washout all day, but there is currently no "window" when rain is not possible.
The trend continues into Sunday night, though with the setting sun, coverage of showers and storms will be a bit less, but still scattered activity is worth keeping in the forecast. Finally, by Monday, a cold front pushes into the region from the northwest as the upper trough also begins to shift east. Look for continued rain and thunderstorm chances until probably late afternoon when the front moves through. By the evening, well be drying out though it will take until Tuesday to begin feeling the drier, less humid air.
|By Monday evening, a pre-frontal trough should push rain chances to our south as the front ushering in drier air moves in from the north, leaving pleasant conditions in it's wake for the mid/end of the week. (NOAA)|
Tuesday through Friday looks very nice with abundant sunshine, low humidity on north wind through at least Thursday, and temperatures below normal. A great week to be playing in the FedEx St. Jude Golf tournament if you're a golfer not used to southern humidity! Look for highs in the lower to mid 80s, lows in the lower 60s to maybe the upper 50s in rural areas by mid-week, and dewpoints in the 50s. Perfection for June!
By next weekend, southerly wind returns so humidity and temperatures will return to near normal, but dry weather looks to continue to end out the week. Early indications point to above normal temperatures returning by the second week of June, so perhaps we'll see the 90s that week! Click here for the complete forecast.
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